Sunday, April 24, 2011

A CURIOUS CASE OF "POLICY RISK"


Needless to say, it is the crucial time for India in order project itself as a developed economy in future. Theory says, the commendable GDP growth that is being witnessed is the following of the precedence set by many developed economies during their past. But still investors are made to think many a times due to highly volatile policy environment.

An investor gets attracted to the SEZ (Special Economic Zone) model that is put on the table by Indian Government to encourage FDI, establish a unit and start operations. Before establishment, the financial projections done by the company takes into account, the prevailing tax laws and other parameters. Hoping fewer changes in policies and amendments, things begin. But it is only in a country like India (Out of all developing economies), amendments and bills can be grossly beyond the expected volatility in policy environment.

The recent financial bill and Direct Tax Code 2010 (DTC 2010) both support levying huge MAT (Minimum Alternate Tax) upon SEZ companies. This dilutes the very purpose of tax holiday and encouragement of FDIs, projecting India as a country with more “Country Risk” (POLICY RISK to be precise) as important policies keep on changing very frequently.

Media quote 2011 as year of financial reforms in the country. It would have been much better if things are in place by now. Hope the silver rain of high growth sustains till the time stable Acts like DTC, GST (Goods and Service Tax) come in place. And again let world not say..”Indians are always late” …

PS: High volatility in policies, bills, acts might not exactly come under country risk, but there is no word in semantics to describe this risk precisely. And here we coined a term “Policy Risk”.

Policy Risk: Risk due to frequent grossly unexpected changes in policies, bill and acts that affect the business.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Cricket in Financial Economics!!


As the economy grows, people gather interest in multiplying their money in forums of common interest. In India, cricket is a religion. It is powerful tool for national integrity. Why this can’t be diverted towards a legal platform for doing business through an authorized exchange. In the country where horse racing is legal at many places, futures and options, the instruments which are based on speculation are being traded profusely, why not bring something like “Cricket futures” on to the light in a regulated manner.

The main reason the government has to ban betting on cricket is that the low income groups get attracted to such alluring systems and lose their livelihood. But in a large country with 1.2 billion population, how far it is feasible for the government to ensure such a punt is not happening? There are sources that predicted Rs.10000crores ($2.2Bn USD) of cricket betting taken place during Mohali India Vs Pakistan cricket match!!!! Instead if it creates a regulatory forum for “cricket futures”, it can bring in better organized flow of interests.

Proper regulatory mechanism takes care of “match fixing” in cricket which is analogous to “internal trading” in companies. Innovation in financial economics can welcome growth in the economy provided channels are well cemented to avoid leaks... Comments are invited.. :)