Sunday, October 10, 2010

Basel III for India! Isnt it too early?


I can vouch and say that Basel III is the best risk management framework till now and that can be suggested for banks....But,the catch here is that "Indian Banks are not ready for such a robust framework"

An international bank that is sitting on a cushion of corpus of funds can implement this overnight which is not case with many new/ weak commercial banks of an EME like India.

Indian banks have a long way. With the pressure of 50% priority sector lending, Other developmental pressures, Indian commercial banks cannot sustain or maintain the huge capital requirements of Basel III.

Indian banks are given deadline till 2014 to implement Basel II. Kudos to the central bank in observing the implementation closely, but again.. it cannot push the banks to do this. Even if the deadlines(I would say time-lines) are met, it takes few more years for the banking system to absorb one more pill.

Last point: I dont know how far I am right here, for a country like India which is looking towards expansion in debt markets and more leverage interms of capital from overseas, Basel III norms will reduce the leverage hence the returns on equity would be less which might impact the growth of banking sector seems a paradox to me...

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Stop the Currency War!


Currency Wars:

Post Recession, a strong synergy is expected between various nations. International Institutional Infrastructure like IMF, World Bank Etc.. are expected to bring nations onto a single forum for cooperation. But surprisingly, the synergy amongst nations that has existed before the crisis which though abetted in generating bubbles in the economies and heating up is also fading away.

The crucial move from bodies like financial stability organization, BIS, IMF is to bring the over-leveraged synergy into a controlled and productive manner is missing. My stand on the above arguments is based on the following facts.

1) Floating of Yuan for a beneficial export market and saving glut by “Peoples bank of China”

2) Conservatism in Outsourcing IT projects by US

3) Stimulus package and near zero interest rates by “Bank of Japan” as a move to depreciate YEN to encourage the exports.

Mr. Japan and Ms. China, Enough you guys have saved..!!

Probably it is only India, out of major economies, which is helping for global financial stability. Though Rupee’s continuous appreciation is hurting the exports of the country, no conservative move is taken by RBI. Kudos to the firm stand upon the decision to cooperate the global consumption, welcoming US president on Diwali to give the reins of Indian Consumer to the external world and position India as consuming country.

The growth in developed countries is only marked at 4.7% because of the conservative attitude shown. The crisis has taught lessons to the nations to control the activity and not to be inactive. How long does the rest of the world takes to learn from India? Work for Mutual Benefit. Stop the “CURRENCY WAR!!”